Project Profile: CHAIN

Climate Hazards and Migration in Madagascar: Towards an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling for Mitigation and Adaptation


Principal Investigators: Assem Abu Hatab, Nordic Africa Institute, Sweden
Partners: Fabien Durand, Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, France
Valerie Ann Mueller, Arizona State University, United States of America (the)
Sarobidy Rakotonarivo, University of Antananarivo, Madagascar
Andrew Bell, Boston University, United States of America (the)
Carl-Johan Lagerkvist, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden
Jamon Van Den Hoek, Oregon State University, United States of America (the)
Caroline Wainwright, Imperial College London, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (the)


Full Project Title: Climate Hazards and Migration in Madagascar: Towards an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling for Mitigation and Adaptation
Full Call Title: Migration2022


Project Objective: The increasing frequency and severity of sudden and slow-onset climate-related hazards are bearing visible effects on natural and human systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The consequences of these hazards threaten to derail national and global efforts to achieve sustainable development goals in LMICs. A consensus among scholars holds that climate hazards are crucially linked to migration. From a scientific research perspective, the research portfolio on droughts and cyclones fails to match the severity of its current and likely future impact in Africa. Taking Madagascar, a LMIC characterized by dual exposure to sudden and slow-onset climatic hazards and increasing human migration, the proposed project, CHAIN, aims to achieve the following intertwined objectives: - Develop a cost-effective procedure to improve our measure of migration in areas vulnerable to climate change with low capacity for data collection, and over a sufficient spatial and temporal scale required for modeling these processes. - Develop and validate cost-effective procedures to measure multiple hazards (e.g. cyclone incidence, flooding, and droughts) using state-of-the-art numerical modeling, remote sensing techniques and satellite data available to the public. - Contribute a more human-centric approach to quantifying the relationships underlying migration as adaptive responses to socio-environmental change by exploring the roles of migration duration in a multi-hazard environment, as well as the vulnerability of specific demographic groups. - Investigate anticipated dynamic migration patterns accounting for adaptation and policy responses and their associated feedbacks. CHAIN will adopt an integrated multidisciplinary human-centric approach to develop, synthesize, integrate, and supplement data and models to research the complex relationships among the many factors influencing migration/mobility and its relationship to climate hazards, and improve evidence production, public and policy debate, and decision-making.
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Duration: 36 Months
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